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What a world we live in. Let's look at
Iraq. We know the President said ostensibly that the reason for
invading was to find weapons of mass destruction, and prevent
Saddam Hussein from using them. His removal from office could
create a new democratic Iraq. America invaded and found no weapons
of mass destruction - not even a hint of them.
Now the media is basically reporting that
we are involved in a Civil War in Iraq, and we are losing it.
Somewhere in between the two ends of the story is the truth and you
need to know it, so that you don't have to be inundated with bias
from all sides of the media, both liberal and conservative. Let's
go through the great myths of Iraq.
Myth 1 - Invading Iraq has helped us with
the War on Terrorism
Nonsense, there is no war on terrorism in
Iraq. Osama Bin Laden attacked the two World Trade Center buildings
in NYC more than five years ago. Hello, has anybody heard recently
whether anybody is looking for Bin Laden anymore. If so who, what
resources are being devoted to taking down this awful, hateful man?
I suggest very little is being done. Everyone's attention is on
Iraq.
Saddam Hussein was not an exporter of
terror. He used terror as an internal weapon inside Iraq to control
the very people that we obviously can't control. These people do
not want a democracy, if they did, they would fight for it.
Instead, they fight each other, even in the same neighborhoods.
It's a Civil War folks, pure and simple.
Myth 2 - The military's post war planning
was okay, not great, but okay?
Really, Donald Rumsfeld's Defense
Department could not have done a worse job if they had set out to
do one as an objective. There was literally ZERO post war planning,
compared to the actual invasion that took place. The looting of the
civil infrastructure after our invasion, including the pilfering of
museums was a tip-off as to how undermanned, and under planned we
really were.
Myth 3 - If only we "Stayed the Course" as
the President is fond of saying, it will work out in the end.
There's a line that goes, "If you always
do, what you always did, you'll always get, what you always got."
In life, if something isn't working, YOU CHANGE IT. You do
something else. You do not just keep doing what you were doing.
This President is stubborn without being wise. Perhaps more than
anyone else in the history of the modern Presidency, he shows a
reluctance to learn from his mistakes, and total lack of desire to
inquire as to alternative options. He's LOCKED into a thinking
that just doesn't work. He has never allowed the decision making
process to be VETTED by opposing thinkers. In this behavior, he is
unique, and foolish.
Myth 4 - Iraq will become Democratic in
time.
Sure, and I believe in the tooth fairy.
This is not the American Revolution, a unique era with a unique
group of the best read, self-educated men in history. Unrivaled in
courage, our founders had the desire to stand against England, and
form a Republic for which it stands. President Bush is right, when
he says; I haven't seen Thomas Jefferson in Iraq yet. Jefferson
doesn't exist in Iraq, and perhaps never will.
Myth 5 - Our situation in Iraq has made
our position stronger in the world?
Really, do you really want to argue this
one? Iraq had the 4th or 5th largest standing army in the world. We
demonstrated that we could take it apart, and destroy it in 29
days. This was a valuable lesson for the world to learn. In the
aftermath, we demonstrated that we could not govern. We could not
influence events. Our influence frankly just broke down, and we did
it in the face of the world, while everybody was watching.
Our enemies and our friends recognize that
we do not have the capacity to back up our rhetoric with military
action anywhere else in the world, while we are bogged down in
Iraq. Placing 140,000 troops currently in Iraq has made us
incapable of operating anywhere else.
If North Korea were to create a
provocative act TODAY, what would we do? If Iran were to send
troops into the Iraqi desert, or better yet to Saudi Arabia, or
Kuwait, what would we do? We no longer have a draft. The military
is having major problems fulfilling their current manpower
requirements. Has anybody noticed the disproportionate number of
officers at the lieutenant level and above that are dying in Iraq.
Last week, 3 lieutenant colonels were killed in action. This is
unheard of in previous wars. It is because they are dying from
roadside bombs that can strike anyone within a specified
distance.
Myth 6 - Those roadside bombs are made
locally in terrorist hideouts in Iraq.
Those bombs are being manufactured in
Iran, and transported across the border with Syria's help, and we
are doing NOTHING ABOUT IT. These are not simple devices. They are
technologically sophisticated. They required advanced machinery,
and skill to produce. This expertise is not available in Iraq.
These are shaped charges, and they are adjusting to the changes
that the United States is making on the battlefield. Only Iran can
produce such technology in that area. The United States has never
held Iran accountable for its actions, or even mentioned it on the
world stage. What is going on here?
Myth 7 - The military was in agreement
with Rumsfeld's policies or they would have protested? Do you
think so, do you really honestly think so? Very few generals have
what it takes to blow away a career by protesting about decisions
being made by superiors. What we are seeing is what many of us
thought we'd never see again - the Viet Nam syndrome coming back
to haunt us. During Viet Nam hundreds of officers knew our conduct
of the war wasn't working. They kept their mouths shut, and said
that some day when they had the power they would never allow this
to happen again.
Here we are 30 years later, and you
guessed it. The young officers who made those statements are now
leading the armed forces of the United States, and they are just as
quiet as their superiors were during the Viet Nam war. Every one of
these officers knows that we went into Iraq on the cheap, in terms
of our manpower. Oh yes, we had enough to destroy the Iraqi army,
but certainly not enough to secure the peace.
Colin Powell who knows a thing or two
about waging war felt 300,000 plus troops were needed. Powell was
smart enough to get out of government before it hit the fan. So
what do we do now? We declare victory in the field, and also
declare an inability to build a democracy for a people where
democracy is everybody's second choice. We then must concentrate
on terminating Bin Laden, and being a responsible superpower.
Richard Stoyeck
http://www.stocksatbottom.com
About the Author
Richard Stoyeck's background includes
being a limited partner at Bear Stearns, Senior VP at Lehman
Brothers, Kuhn Loeb, Arthur Andersen, and KPMG. Educated at Pace
University, NYU, and Harvard University, today he runs Rockefeller
Capital Partners and StocksAtBottom.com
Value Investing at StocksAtBottom.com
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