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The election results from Iowa were
everywhere this morning. Pundits in newspapers and on television
and radio were proclaiming the rise of Barack Obama and Mike
Huckabee. The experts were examining the disappointing results from
Iowa to the campaigns of Mitt Romney, Hillary Clinton, Fred
Thompson, and John Edwards.
In case you were not paying attention to
the constant political analysis of the Iowa voting totals this
morning, Mike Huckabee beat Mitt Romney by 9% and Barack Obama beat
Hillary Clinton by almost the same margin. In fact, Edwards and
Clinton finished well behind Obama in second and third place
respectively.
The results from Iowa have already reduced
the crowded field of political candidates. In the Democratic race,
Christopher Dodd finished with less than 1% of the Iowa vote and
immediately dropped out of the race. Joe Biden also dropped out
after receiving slightly over 1% of the vote. On the Republican
side, Fred Thompson looks to be on his way out. It appears that he
never really wanted to run for President in the first place.
Several other candidates will fight on
through at least New Hampshire, but their campaigns are now waiting
for their candidates withdrawal speeches. John Edwards needed to
win Iowa. He did not and is done. Mitt Romney is in deep trouble
and needs to beat John McCain in New Hampshire. Romney has the
money (personal fortune) to continue his candidacy after New
Hampshire, but without an early primary victory, it is hard to
continue to see him competitive for the nomination. Rudy Giuliani
is waiting for the Florida primary for his campaign to even
begin.
The big Iowa Caucus winners were Obama,
McCain, and Huckabee. Obama proved he is a formidable candidate.
McCain finished better than expected in Iowa and is surging in the
next primary in New Hampshire. Mike Huckabee won in Iowa, but is
not doing very well in the public opinion polls in New
Hampshire.
Hillary Clinton finished third in the Iowa
Caucuses. She split the female vote with Obama and lost the youth
vote badly. Obama beat her handily in being the candidate for
change. Iowa voters destroyed Clinton's "inevitability" theme that
her campaign had carefully nurtured over the last few months. She
had been running a campaign of change that promoted thirty five
years of experience. To Iowa voters, Barack Obama was the real
candidate for change.
With her "inevitability" and "candidate
for change" credentials badly compromised, Hillary Clinton's
remaining political card is her experience as compared to the
comparative inexperience of Barrack Obama. However, as she has done
since September, Hillary Clinton continues to make dramatic
mistakes. Her latest mistakes may have undercut the credibility of
her claim of being the candidate with the most experience. Consider
her quotes on the election in Pakistan on December 29 and December
30, 2007.
She told Wolf Blitzer (CNN) on December
29, 2007, "If President Musharraf wishes to stand for election then
he should abide by the same rules that every other candidate will
have to follow".
On Sunday morning December 30, 2007,
ABC's program called "This Week" ran an interview George
Stephanopoulos had done with Sen. Clinton two days earlier.
Referring to a possible delay in the elections in Pakistan, Sen.
Clinton said: "I think it will be very difficult to have a real
election. You know, Nawaz Sharif (leader of the PML-N, an
opposition party) has said he's not going to compete. The PPP is
in disarray with Benazir's assassination. He (President Pervez
Musharraf) could be the only person on the ballot. I don't think
that's a real election."
Sen. Clinton didn't know that the
upcoming elections in Pakistan were for individual seats in
Parliament. Pervez Musharraf was elected as President of Pakistan
months ago and is not on the ballot for Prime Minister. It is clear
from her quotes that Mrs. Clinton thinks erroneously that Benazir
Bhutto ( prior to her death) was running against Pervez Musharraf
for Prime Minister of Pakistan. It is very dubious indeed that she
does not have the basic understanding of an election in a country
which is our most crucial ally on the War on Terror, a dangerous
country filled with Islamic fundamentalists and nuclear
weapons.
Indeed, it could be very difficult for
Hillary Clinton to make the case that she should be considered over
Barack Obama because of experience when she does not have the basic
foreign policy understanding of the country of Pakistan. I am sure
Barrack Obama will use these Clinton quotes in the upcoming debates
to highlight her foreign policy inexperience.
Hillary Clinton needs to defeat Barrack
Obama in either the primary in New Hampshire or South Carolina or
Obama's campaign momentum may become difficult to stop. The
campaign is not over for Hillary Clinton, but it will be soon if
she continues to make obvious political mistakes. However, what the
Iowa Caucus has clearly now shown is that Hillary Clinton's
campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination is anything but
inevitable
About the Author
James William Smith has worked in senior
management positions for some of the largest financial services
firms in the United States for the last twenty five years. He has
also provided business consulting support for insurance
organizations and start up businesses. Mr. Smith has a Bachelor of
Science Degree from Boston College. He enjoys writing articles on
political, national, and world events. Visit his website at
http://www.eworldvu.com
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