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The other day it occurred to me that
during Ronald Reagan's run for the Presidency he created a "Misery
Index". This index represented a total of the rate of inflation,
plus the prime rate, as an indicator of how the American people
felt about how they were doing. No one has suggested resurrecting
this index in recent years. My thought was to create a "Happiness
Index". How happy are you with the leadership of the country. The
problem is that other than taking an outright poll, how do you
determine happiness? Could you merely ask people if they are happy,
or not with the way things are going?
Think about it for a moment, and try to
objectively look at what's been going on the last couple of years.
For the last fifty years, the Republican Party successfully
presented itself as the people's choice for as a strong
anti-communist party versus the former Soviet threat. Republican
President after President was elected on the basis of toughness
versus communism.
By 1992, communism was no longer an issue
as Russia, and the satellites went democratic, and the Berlin Wall
had fallen. Suddenly, the Republican Party felt its foreign policy
legs come out from under it. The communist bogeyman which was real
since 1917 was no longer an issue. A sitting Republican President,
George HW Bush was defeated handily by Democratic Candidate, Bill
Clinton who had NO foreign policy experience, or even an
understanding of things foreign. During the campaign that followed,
foreign policy was a NON-ISSUE. There was no communist bogeyman for
the Republicans to pin their hopes on.
The tragedy of 9/11 changed everything.
When the tragedy struck, the current President of the United States
was handed terrorism on a silver platter as an issue. Terrorism
could then be used as a replacement for communism as the next
boogeyman. Anti-terrorism would serve as the underpinning of the
Republican Party the same way anti-communism served for over 70
years.
The President attacked the Taliban in
Afghanistan who had harbored Osama Bin Laden, and his allies for
years. When it came to finishing the job, and surrounding Osama in
the mountains of Tora Bora, Afghanistan, we let this mass murderer
get away by leaving the job to foreign hired mercenaries, the anti
Taliban Afkan nationals. I assume we simply did not want to take
the American manpower losses that might have been demanded.
The President then committed the American
army and wealth to destroying the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq.
Our entry to this war was based on false premises. There were no
weapons of mass destruction. We are now left with chaos and civil
war in that country, and no EXIT STRATEGY. As Americans, not one of
us, including the President has any idea how this war will finish.
He, the President has now placed our country in the same position
as we were in during Viet Nam - Quagmire.
When Americans enter a war, they need to
know the objective. During WW II, it was the taking of Berlin in
Europe, or the fall of Tokyo in Japan. In Viet Nam, there was no
mission, except the ephemeral objective of keeping South Viet Nam
from going communist. What does that mean? Depending on how you
calculate it, the Viet Nam war went on for about 15 years. How long
will Iraq take?
I believe the President has been notified
by the American people in the recent Congressional election that he
is on a "short leash" when it comes to Iraq. What is the objective
in Iraq? It can't be democracy any longer. These people do not
understand democracy as we understand it. The concept of democracy
in that part of the world has not existed in thousands of
years.
Democracy is everybody's SECOND choice in
Iraq. The Shia and Sunni's are killing each other on a daily basis
in large numbers, some of which are unreported. Good, decent
American troops, none of which are sons of any member of Congress,
are dying in a war without an objective, except for "Stay the
Course".
These policies should be unacceptable to
all of us as Americans. The Republican Party in Congress was a
surrogate for President Bush in this election. The voters could not
vent their ANGER at President Bush direct. The electorate chose
instead, to vent their pent-up anger towards Republican incumbents,
who took a "thumping" as the President said. Yes there were other
issues like corruption, but Iraq was the emotional issue. Had
President Bush been up for re-election, he would have been soundly
defeated by even a paraplegic blind mute this time around.
Let's get back to that "happiness index"
I spoke about in the beginning of this article. Are any of us
happier with the progress of our country over the last six years
than we were before that period? Are we more optimistic about the
future of our country now than we were a few years ago? Do any of
us believe we are headed in the right direction, or even where we
are headed at all?
I believe we are now facing MASSIVE
UNRESOLVED PROBLEMS that if not addressed will get worse, and our
present leadership is not even aware that they exist. America has
moved from a farming economy pre 1900, to a manufacturing economy
in the 20th century. It must now complete the move from a
manufacturing economy, to a services / post industrial society in
this the 21st century. This is going to be a tough move with big
unanticipated downdrafts that can knock us for an economic
loop.
China and the Asian rim want to
manufacture everything, leaving us with nothing. Some of our brand
name companies are more than willing to accommodate them. Nike
manufactures nothing - everything comes from Asia. The massive oil
companies in this country including Exxon, and others manufacture
nothing - they are strictly distribution and marketing entities. GM
and Ford can not compete against Asian manufacturing, and then
there's Wal-Mart, which really functions as a distribution arm for
China. Eighty percent of everything Wal-Mart sells comes from
China.
This President does not have his eye on
the ball, and we are in danger of losing our economic fire power in
the next decade. He is asleep at the switch, and must realize that
we can no longer afford the loss of precious lives, and national
wealth on wars without objectives in countries that none of us have
ever been to.
We do not have a "Happiness Index" in this
country, but if we did, I believe we are near a low in our
emotional happiness in this country. Things have to change, and
they have to change in a hurry. Time is NOT on our side. Other
countries want to eat our economy for lunch, and displace us as the
world's only remaining superpower. This President would do well to
act his act together, and start thinking about how to maintain
national economic wellbeing in the face of the coming foreign
economic threats that are looming.
Richard Stoyeck
About the Author
Richard Stoyeck's background includes
being a limited partner at Bear Stearns, Senior VP at Lehman
Brothers, Kuhn Loeb, Arthur Andersen, and KPMG. Educated at Pace
University, NYU, and Harvard University, today he runs Rockefeller
Capital Partners and StocksAtBottom.com Value Investing at
StocksAtBottom.com
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